Does country of resettlement influence the risk of labor market marginalization among refugees? A cohort study in Sweden and Norway

Objectives This study aimed to compare the risk of labor market marginalization among refugees across different host countries of resettlement and examine the moderating role of birth country and length of stay on these associations. Methods Cohorts of refugees and native-born individuals aged 19–60 in Sweden (N=3 605 949, 3.5% refugees) and Norway (N=1 784 861, 1.7% refugees) were followed during 2010–2016. Rates (per 1000 person-years) of long-term unemployment, long-term sickness absence, and disability pension were estimated for refugees and the host populations. Cox regression models estimated crude and adjusted (for sex, age, educational level, and civil status) hazard ratio (HRadj) for refugees compared to their respective host population, with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Analyses were also stratified by birth country and length of stay. Results Refugees in Norway and Sweden had a higher incidence of labor market marginalization compared to their host population. Refugees in Sweden had a comparatively lower relative risk of long-term unemployment but higher risk of disability pension (HRadj 3.44, 95% CI, 3.38–3.50 and HRadj 2.45, 2.35–2.56, respectively) than refugees in Norway (HRadj 3.70, 3.58–3.82 and HRadj 1.57, 1.49–1.66, respectively). These relative risks varied when stratifying by birth country. A shorter length of stay was associated...